U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Monitor
Daily yield curve analytics. Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed.
10Y Yield
4.45%
10-Year Constant Maturity
2Y Yield
3.95%
2-Year Constant Maturity
10Y-2Y Spread
+0.50%
Primary recession signal
3M Yield
3.70%
3-Month Treasury Bill
Current Snapshot
Spread History
Historical Comparison
Inversion Analysis
Yield Curve as of 2026-05-04
U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities
Reading the curve: A normal upward-sloping curve reflects healthy economic expectations.
An inverted curve, where short rates exceed long rates, has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s.
Maturity Breakdown
All six Treasury maturities
| Maturity | Series | Yield |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | DGS3MO | 3.70% |
| 1 Year | DGS1 | 3.78% |
| 2 Year | DGS2 | 3.95% |
| 5 Year | DGS5 | 4.08% |
| 10 Year | DGS10 | 4.45% |
| 30 Year | DGS30 | 5.02% |
10Y-2Y Spread, 2000 to Present
Negative values indicate an inverted yield curve. Grey bands show U.S. recession periods.
Normal (positive spread)
Inverted (negative spread)
Recession period (NBER)
Inversion periods are shown in red. Grey bands mark official U.S. recessions as defined by NBER.
The 2006-2007 inversion came before the 2008 financial crisis.
The 2022-2024 inversion was the deepest since the 1980s, driven by aggressive Fed rate hikes.
Historical Comparison
Compare the yield curve shape on any two trading days
First Date
Second Date
Total Trading Days
6,587
Since January 2000
Days Inverted
1,009
10Y-2Y spread below zero
Time Inverted
15.3%
Of all trading days since 2000
Inversion Periods
Consecutive trading days with negative 10Y-2Y spread
| Start | End | Trading Days | Deepest Inversion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000-02-02 | 2000-12-28 | 227 | -0.52% |
| 2006-01-31 | 2006-03-07 | 25 | -0.16% |
| 2006-03-21 | 2006-03-29 | 7 | -0.05% |
| 2006-06-08 | 2007-03-20 | 185 | -0.19% |
| 2007-05-03 | 2007-06-05 | 18 | -0.06% |
| 2022-07-06 | 2024-09-05 | 539 | -1.08% |
Historical context: The 2022-2024 inversion began in July 2022 as the Federal Reserve
raised rates from near zero to 5.25-5.50% to fight post-pandemic inflation.
It was the longest inversion since the early 1980s. The curve normalized in late 2024 as the Fed began cutting rates.